Gleissberg cycle and droughts

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The Gleissberg Cycle and Its Relationship with Droughts

The Gleissberg Cycle is a long-term solar cycle that lasts approximately 80-100 years. It reflects variations in solar activity, particularly the amplitude of solar cycles, and is thought to influence climate patterns on Earth, including droughts and temperature extremes. The cycle can modulate the intensity of shorter, more well-known solar cycles like the 11-year sunspot cycle and plays a role in long-term solar variability.

Key Characteristics of the Gleissberg Cycle:

1. Duration: The cycle spans 80-100 years, though exact timing can vary slightly. It is considered a longer-term modulation of the solar activity peaks and troughs.

2. Impact on Climate: The Gleissberg cycle affects climate variability by modulating solar radiation, which in turn can influence weather patterns such as precipitation and temperature extremes. During periods of reduced solar activity (often called solar minimums), the Earth tends to experience cooler temperatures and, in some cases, droughts.

3. Link to Droughts: Research has shown that solar activity and drought patterns in certain regions can be linked through the Gleissberg cycle. Periods of lower solar activity have historically coincided with prolonged droughts in regions like North America, India, and Africa.

Drought Patterns During the Gleissberg Cycle:

1. North America:

• The American Midwest has shown evidence of severe droughts linked to the Gleissberg cycle. For example, during the 1930s Dust Bowl, which occurred during a period of declining solar activity, drought severely impacted agricultural production in the U.S.

• Drought periods influenced by the Gleissberg cycle could last for several years to decades, with some models suggesting more persistent dry conditions during the latter part of the cycle.

2. India:

• Monsoon patterns in India are highly sensitive to solar radiation changes. Reduced solar output during the Gleissberg minimum can lead to weaker monsoons, triggering agricultural droughts in the region.

• Historical records show correlations between solar minima and famine periods in India, suggesting that low solar activity affects the strength and reliability of the monsoons.

3. Africa:

• In Africa, particularly the Sahel region, solar activity fluctuations influence rainfall patterns. Lower solar output during the Gleissberg cycle could exacerbate desertification and lead to prolonged droughts in already vulnerable regions.

• Historical data show a link between long-term solar cycles and multi-year droughts in parts of Africa.

Impact on Food Prices and Security

A prolonged period of drought induced by the Gleissberg cycle would have significant effects on global food prices and food security, especially in areas highly dependent on agriculture. Some of the potential effects include:

1. Reduced Agricultural Yields:

• Staple crops like wheat, corn, and rice could face reduced yields due to water scarcity. Prolonged droughts affect soil moisture, irrigation capacity, and crop growth, leading to lower harvests.

• Regions like the Midwest United States, India, and parts of Africa that are sensitive to drought could see significant declines in crop production, leading to food shortages and price increases.

2. Increased Food Prices:

• A reduction in agricultural output due to drought would lead to supply shortages, which in turn would cause spikes in food prices. This would particularly affect commodity crops like grains, which are globally traded and heavily used for food production.

• Countries dependent on food imports, such as Middle Eastern nations or Sub-Saharan Africa, could face severe economic challenges as food prices rise.

3. Social Unrest:

• History shows that food shortages and price hikes often lead to social unrest. The Arab Spring in 2011 was partially triggered by rising food prices, exacerbated by droughts in major wheat-producing regions like Russia.

• Prolonged droughts and their impact on food availability could increase the risk of migration, political instability, and conflict, particularly in regions with limited resources.

Signs of Drought Associated with the Gleissberg Cycle Today

There are some indicators that current climatic conditions may reflect the impact of the Gleissberg cycle:

• Prolonged Dry Periods: In parts of the Western United States, including California and the Colorado River Basin, ongoing megadroughts have been observed. Some scientists suggest that these droughts could be influenced by long-term solar cycles, including the Gleissberg cycle.

• Weak Monsoons: Recent Indian monsoon seasons have been erratic, with some years showing reduced rainfall. A weaker monsoon could be an early indicator of longer-term shifts in rainfall patterns due to changes in solar activity.

• African Droughts: Parts of East Africa have experienced severe droughts in recent years, contributing to food shortages and famine conditions in some regions. This could potentially be linked to the current phase of the Gleissberg cycle.

Future Outlook and Food Security

Over the next few decades, as we potentially enter a cooler phase of the Gleissberg cycle, the risk of global droughts could increase. This would have significant implications for food security:

1. Increased Drought Frequency and Intensity: As the cycle progresses, regions already vulnerable to drought could experience more frequent and intense dry periods, leading to long-term damage to agriculture and water resources.

2. Rising Food Prices: Global food prices could rise as agricultural output decreases. Wealthy nations might be able to buffer these effects by importing food, but poorer countries will struggle, leading to greater inequality in food access.

3. Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Droughts in key agricultural regions like the U.S., India, and Africa could disrupt global food supply chains, leading to price volatility and shortages.

Conclusion

The Gleissberg cycle plays a significant role in modulating climate patterns, and there is evidence linking its cooler phases to drought periods in regions like North America, India, and Africa. These droughts can be long-lasting and severe, posing significant risks to food security and global food prices. As the cycle progresses over the coming decades, we could see more pronounced droughts, which will impact agricultural productivity and lead to higher food prices, particularly for import-dependent nations. Signs of current droughts in the U.S., India, and Africa may already be early indicators of the Gleissberg cycle’s effects.

Gleissberg Cycle and Droughts: Low Solar Activity?

Yes, the Gleissberg cycle is associated with low solar activity during its minimum phase, and there is evidence that such low solar activity can correlate with periods of drought. The Gleissberg minimum refers to a period when the amplitude of solar cycles is lower than average, often coinciding with cooler global temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, including droughts.

When Could We See the Next Drought?

Given that we are potentially entering a period of lower solar activity (possibly linked to the ongoing Eddy Minimum or a similar long-term reduction in solar output), the earliest droughts influenced by these factors could begin as soon as within the next few years. Historically, during similar periods of low solar activity (such as during the Maunder Minimum or Dalton Minimum), droughts became more frequent and severe in regions already sensitive to solar variability.

However, it is essential to note that solar cycles are just one factor among many that contribute to droughts. Atmospheric circulation patterns, ocean temperatures (e.g., El Niño and La Niña), and human activities (e.g., land use, water management) also play significant roles.

Possible Early Signs of Gleissberg-Induced Drought

1. North America (Western U.S.): The ongoing megadrought in the Western U.S. could be an early sign. Some studies suggest that solar variability may contribute to long-term drought patterns in this region, particularly as solar output decreases during the Gleissberg cycle's low phase.

2. India (Weaker Monsoons): India’s monsoon patterns could also be affected by reduced solar output. Weaker or erratic monsoons might lead to agricultural droughts, with early signs possibly emerging in the next monsoon season or within a few years if low solar activity persists.

3. Africa (Sahel Region): Historical data shows that long-term solar cycles like the Gleissberg minimum can exacerbate desertification and drought in regions like the Sahel. The first signs of prolonged droughts in Africa may become evident within the next decade, especially if solar output continues to decline.

Drought Timing: Estimating the Earliest Impact

• 2020s-2030s: The earliest observable droughts influenced by the Gleissberg minimum could begin in the early 2020s and intensify into the 2030s, particularly in regions sensitive to changes in solar activity. Areas such as the Western U.S., India, and Africa would be among the first to feel the impact.

• Severity: These droughts could last for years to decades, depending on the length and depth of the solar minimum phase, with agricultural outputs severely affected and water scarcity becoming a pressing issue.

Impact on Food Prices and Security

As discussed previously, food prices are highly sensitive to disruptions in global agricultural production. If the Gleissberg-induced drought patterns begin to materialize, we can expect the following impacts:

• Increased Food Prices: Global crop yields (particularly grains like wheat, corn, and rice) would decrease, leading to supply shortages and increased prices. Countries dependent on imports for food security would be especially vulnerable.

• Regional Food Security Risks: Areas like Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of India, and the Middle East would experience more severe food security challenges as local production declines and global food prices rise.

Conclusion

The Gleissberg cycle, with its associated periods of low solar activity, has been linked to droughts in multiple regions historically. Based on current trends, we could begin seeing the next phase of Gleissberg-induced droughts in the 2020s. The potential for these droughts to impact food security and global food prices is significant, particularly in regions that are already vulnerable to climate variability.

Why Prolonged Drought Has a Large Impact on Prices

Prolonged droughts have a significant impact on food prices due to their effect on agricultural output, water availability, and economic adaptation mechanisms. There are several key factors that explain why extended periods of drought exert such a large and often sustained influence on prices:

1. Supply Shock and Reduced Agricultural Output:

• Drought reduces the amount of arable land and usable water, directly decreasing crop yields, especially for water-intensive crops like wheat and corn. In drought-affected regions, farmers cannot plant or harvest as usual, leading to immediate supply shortages.

• The agricultural cycle is highly dependent on favorable conditions. A single poor harvest can be disruptive, but when multiple growing seasons are affected by prolonged drought, the supply shortfall becomes much more severe, with global repercussions.

2. Global Stockpiles Are Insufficient:

• Global food stockpiles of major staples like wheat and corn are generally maintained at low levels relative to consumption. While many governments and private organizations maintain reserves, these are often insufficient to cover multiple years of drought.

• This mismatch between supply and demand can lead to price spikes, especially when markets recognize that stockpiles will not be able to buffer the effects of a prolonged drought. In a world where food reserves are meant to last just a few months, several years of drought can drastically deplete reserves and cause prices to rise sharply.

3. Price Response to Drought:

• Initially, prices may adjust moderately as markets anticipate that the drought will be short-lived or that other regions can make up for the shortfall. However, if the drought persists, the market must continuously reprice the future scarcity of food, leading to more extreme price adjustments.

• Supply chains can also be disrupted as drought-stricken areas reduce exports, and importing nations bid up the prices for available supply on the global market. Agricultural inputs like water, labor, and energy become more expensive during droughts, further driving up the cost of food production.

4. Market Adaptation and Lag in Production Response:

• Farmers may respond to higher prices by planting more or investing in drought-resistant technologies, but agriculture takes time to adjust. It can take years for supply to recover, especially if drought conditions persist and require extensive adaptation.

• The elasticity of supply is low in the short term, meaning that producers cannot immediately scale up production to meet demand. This keeps prices elevated for a longer period until the agricultural system can adapt, either through new technologies or shifts in production to more drought-resilient regions.

5. Global Dependencies and Regional Shortages:

• Many countries are highly dependent on food imports, especially staples like wheat and corn. As regions face persistent drought, the global supply network tightens. Nations that rely on imports face increasing competition, driving up prices.

• Export restrictions or bans from key producing nations exacerbate these shortages and can lead to panic buying or hoarding, further inflating prices.

6. Long-Term Economic Effects:

• Over time, the economic costs of a long drought compound. The cumulative effects on livestock (due to lack of feed), infrastructure, and farm productivity can create lasting damage to agricultural systems, leading to protracted price increases. While prices may initially spike, long-term price elevation reflects the difficulty of restoring supply chains and the necessary capital investments to recover agricultural capacity.

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Historical Price Trends and David Hackett Fischer’s Great Wave

In his book "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History", historian David Hackett Fischer analyzes long-term trends in price revolutions—periods of persistent inflation that have historically coincided with major economic and social transformations. Fischer identifies four great waves of rising prices throughout history, each followed by periods of relative stability or deflation.

Key Ideas from "The Great Wave":

1. Price Revolutions: Fischer argues that throughout history, there have been periods of prolonged inflation (lasting decades or centuries) driven by factors such as climate change, war, political instability, and population pressures. These periods of inflation often lead to social upheaval and transformations in economic and political systems.

2. Climatic and Environmental Factors: In several of these waves, climatic conditions played a key role. For instance, the Little Ice Age (a period of cooler temperatures from roughly the 14th to the 19th century) contributed to agricultural failures, which in turn drove up food prices and triggered social unrest.

3. Patterns of Price Surges: Each "wave" of inflation begins with a supply shock or demand increase, leading to rising prices. Over time, these prices climb to unsustainable levels, causing economic dislocations, social conflict, and often political changes.

Are We Early in Another "Great Wave"?

Several factors suggest that we could be at the beginning of a new price revolution or "Great Wave," as described by Fischer:

1. Climate Change and Droughts: Increasing climatic volatility, potentially exacerbated by long-term solar cycles like the Gleissberg or Eddy Minimum, could lead to persistent agricultural disruptions. Prolonged droughts, as discussed earlier, could trigger a sustained period of rising food prices, much like during the Little Ice Age.

2. Global Debt and Monetary Policy: Fischer also links price revolutions to periods of excessive monetary expansion and government debt. Today’s global debt levels and the widespread use of quantitative easing to respond to crises (such as COVID-19) are reminiscent of past periods of monetary inflation, which historically have led to long-term price rises.

3. Resource Constraints: Fischer’s analysis highlights the role of resource shortages in driving price surges. As global water scarcity and soil degradation increase due to climate change and overuse, the supply side constraints could drive up prices for essential commodities, including food, water, and energy.

Price Trends in Historical Waves:

• In previous great waves, prices of essential goods like food could increase by 200-500% or more over decades. For example, during the 17th century Price Revolution, the cost of grains and other staples increased dramatically across Europe, leading to widespread social and political upheaval.

• Fischer’s framework would suggest that if we are entering a new wave of inflation, we could see significant long-term price increases in food and other critical goods, as climate shocks (like those from a Gleissberg cycle) reduce supply.

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Conclusion: The Link Between Drought, Price Spikes, and Fischer’s Theory

Prolonged droughts under a Gleissberg or Eddy Minimum scenario would have a profound impact on food prices due to persistent supply shortages, delayed adaptation, and the cascading effects of global dependencies on food production. The slow recovery of agricultural systems and rising demand, coupled with geopolitical factors, could lead to sustained price increases.

David Hackett Fischer’s Great Wave theory provides a compelling framework for understanding long-term price cycles, and there are signs we may be in the early stages of another such wave. Factors like climatic changes, resource constraints, and monetary inflation echo past periods of price instability, suggesting that we may be on the cusp of prolonged inflation in food prices and other essential commodities.

In this context, investing in climate-resilient agricultural land and regions with stable water resources may provide protection against future price volatility. Additionally, monitoring global debt levels and monetary policy will be critical in predicting the long-term trajectory of price surges in this potential new wave.

Elasticity of Corn Supply Over Different Horizons

Supply elasticity measures how responsive the quantity supplied of a good is to changes in price. For corn, the elasticity of supply depends on several factors, including time horizons and the agricultural environment.

1. Short-Term Elasticity (1-2 years):

• In the short term, corn supply is highly inelastic. Farmers cannot easily increase production in response to rising prices because they are constrained by factors like planting seasons, land availability, and weather conditions. Additionally, significant capital investments like irrigation systems or drought-resistant seeds cannot be made overnight. Therefore, even in the face of higher prices due to droughts or other disruptions, corn supply might not increase significantly.

• Droughts exacerbate this, especially if they persist across multiple growing seasons. The current droughts in the U.S. Corn Belt demonstrate this. Experts expect the drought to last through 2024, and potentially worsen by 2025, meaning supply will likely remain constrained in the short term【93†source】【94†source】.

2. Medium-Term Elasticity (3-10 years):

• Over a 3-10 year horizon, the elasticity of supply becomes more flexible. Farmers can begin adapting by expanding acreage, investing in irrigation, or switching to more drought-resistant crops. However, these adaptations take time and require investment. This period would also see the effects of new technologies (e.g., improved corn strains) and possibly government policies that could increase supply in response to price signals.

• If the Gleissberg cycle triggers prolonged droughts, as some experts predict for the 2025 period, the adaptations may still fall short of stabilizing supply, particularly if climate disruptions are more severe than expected【94†source】【95†source】.

3. Long-Term Elasticity (10-25 years):

• Over the long term, corn supply becomes much more elastic. Farmers can fully respond to high prices by adjusting crop production, adopting new technologies, and expanding agricultural land in more suitable climates. There may also be shifts toward alternative crops or changes in global trade patterns that redistribute corn production to less-affected areas.

• However, if climate change or solar cycles such as the Gleissberg cause prolonged climate instability, the long-term elasticity of supply might remain limited by geopolitical constraints, resource depletion, and global competition for arable land【96†source】.

Current Commentary on Droughts and the Gleissberg Cycle

• Duration of Droughts: Experts, including climatologists studying solar cycles like the Gleissberg, are forecasting that the current drought cycle in the U.S. Midwest could persist and intensify through 2025. Some climatologists have drawn parallels between the expected upcoming drought and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, suggesting that we could be entering a multi-year drought phase【94†source】【95†source】.

• Gleissberg Cycle's Influence: The Gleissberg cycle, a long-term solar cycle (approximately 80-100 years), is believed to have influenced significant climate events in the past. While there is debate over its precise impact, some experts believe that we are in the early stages of a cooling period linked to the cycle. This could lead to more extreme weather patterns, including droughts across major agricultural regions like the U.S. Corn Belt【96†source】【97†source】.

Corn Prices and Food Security

If these prolonged droughts materialize as expected:

1. Short-term (5 years): Corn prices could see sharp increases, possibly by 50-100%, as farmers struggle to meet demand due to ongoing drought conditions. In the U.S., prices might jump from current levels of around 5perbushel * *to * *10 or higher in some years.

2. Medium-term (10 years): If the Gleissberg cycle continues to suppress agricultural output, prices could increase even further, with 100-200% increases likely in the worst-case scenarios. Global supply chains will be stressed as other regions also face drought conditions.

3. Long-term (25 years): Over a longer horizon, sustained adaptations might bring prices back down, but if climate volatility remains high, food security risks and elevated prices could persist, especially if global reserves and export policies fail to stabilize markets.

Best Places to Invest in Agricultural Land and Residential Property

Given the uncertainty around prolonged droughts and climate impacts:

• Agricultural Land:

• Canada (e.g., southern regions of Manitoba, Alberta, Saskatchewan) could become more valuable as the climate warms and provides better growing conditions for grains.

• New Zealand and the U.S. Pacific Northwest (e.g., Oregon, Washington) are likely to maintain stable agricultural output due to more reliable water access and milder climate conditions.

• Residential Property:

• Regions like Scandinavia (Norway, Sweden) and Canada (British Columbia, Quebec) are likely to remain attractive, with stable climates, good governance, and food security.

• New Zealand also remains a good long-term bet for residential investments due to its climate resilience and relatively stable socio-political environment.

In conclusion, the current outlook on corn supply elasticity and the potential influence of the Gleissberg cycle on droughts suggest significant upward pressure on prices in the coming years. Agricultural land in resilient climates and well-prepared regions will likely offer the best long-term investment opportunities.

At present, discussions around the prolonged drought and its potential extension into the next few years are happening in agricultural circles, but it's primarily focused within specialized agricultural and climatology communities. These discussions have not yet fully permeated mainstream financial firms to the extent one might expect, given the scale of potential disruptions. Financial firms are indeed concerned about the short-term impacts of weather volatility on crop yields and prices, but there seems to be less emphasis on the multi-year or long-term drought scenarios that some specialists, particularly those studying solar cycles like the Gleissberg, are beginning to consider.

Current Outlook in Financial Markets:

• Commodity analysts and farmers are primarily discussing strategies for dealing with immediate concerns like input costs, short-term price fluctuations, and weather impacts on the next growing season. Risk management tools such as options contracts are widely used to hedge against drought-induced price volatility for crops like corn. However, these strategies are mostly focused on a one-to-two-year horizon rather than preparing for a prolonged drought stretching over multiple years【103†source】【105†source】.

Gleissberg Cycle Discussions:

• Discussions about the Gleissberg cycle and its potential impact on climate and agriculture are mostly found in specialist climatology and solar research communities. These specialists highlight the potential for extended periods of lower solar activity, which could exacerbate drought conditions across regions like the U.S. Corn Belt, India, and parts of Africa【105†source】.

• Despite the scientific indicators suggesting a potential for more severe and prolonged droughts, these concerns have not yet fully translated into market-wide expectations. Most of the agricultural market commentary remains centered around annual weather variability and other immediate risks, rather than fully exploring the long-term climatic implications that could arise if we enter a significant solar minimum.

Implications for Corn Supply and Elasticity:

The discussions around corn supply suggest that short-term supply elasticity is very low, meaning it’s difficult to ramp up production quickly in response to price changes caused by drought. Over the medium term (3-10 years), elasticity improves slightly as farmers adopt new technologies or change their cropping patterns, but these adaptations take time and significant investment. Long-term elasticity (over 10+ years) is more flexible, as infrastructure and farming systems can adjust more substantially, though prolonged climate instability may still limit supply responses.

Conclusion:

In summary, the financial and agricultural markets are aware of the drought risks and are taking steps to manage short-term impacts, but there is limited focus on the longer-term drought projections linked to cycles like the Gleissberg. Specialists in solar and climate cycles are more deeply engaged in forecasting multi-year droughts, but this knowledge has not yet fully influenced broader market discussions or financial risk management strategies. If these prolonged drought scenarios materialize, they could result in sustained price increases for staple crops like corn, further straining global food security.